Quarterly Overview of Global and Regional Situation: September to December 2022

Across The World

The crisis of imperialism is sharpening with an impending global recession that is all but guaranteed. Economic crisis in the imperialist centres is causing untold suffering to the toiling masses across the world. Food and fuel prices have pushed the rate of inflation in the United States¹ and the United Kingdom to 40 year highs and in Germany to a 50 year high. In Japan the inflation has breached an 8 year high² and in the European Union it exceeded 10% in September alongside a slowdown in factory output on the whole. Soaring inflation has been compounded by slowing growth which the US Federal Reserve has sought to remedy with regular rate hikes that are causing havoc in the global currency markets. Across the imperialist countries, jobs are being shed across sectors in an effort to deal with the crisis of demand and the resultant declining profits. The Chinese social imperialists are also experiencing an economic slowdown, further aggravated by a revival of the COVID-19 in some parts of the country, as evidenced by the delay in releasing the official economic data during the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).³

Working class opposition in imperialist centres to the imperialist induced crisis is also witnessing a revival. In the US, the labour movement is resurging led by the organising of retail workers and manual workers of tech companies like Amazon⁴ and Facebook. In the UK, transport workers in road and rail,⁵ port workers, teachers, etc. have all engaged in strike action prompting the former Prime Minister Elizabeth Truss to label them as a part of the anti-development bloc. In France, refinery⁶ and rail workers as well air traffic controllers struck over pay and jobs, in Italy transport workers⁷ and air traffic controllers have gone on strike and in Germany retail workers⁸ have struck, with a pilot strike on-going.⁹ The crisis and slow build-up of agitations has resulted in gradual imperialist support to fascist and reactionary forces. These right wing forces have increased their foot-hold in France and Germany and formed a government in Italy and even in the so-called social democratic Sweden.¹⁰

Inter-imperialist contradictions and conflict are only bound to rise with the USA’s now-blatant sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany which has led to rising electricity costs across Europe.¹¹ The alliance of Russian strategic resources and German capital posed a potential opposition to US imperialists who have used the war to ensure such alliances do not emerge. European bourgeoisie finds itself losing its competitive character and the march towards fascism begins with this economic crisis and inter-imperialist conflict.

War in Ukraine continues with the initial Russian advantage having largely dissipated. Ukrainian forces, materially supported by the imperialist North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) bloc have evicted Russian occupational armies from several parts of the country pushing the Russian armies back into the separatist regions bordering Russia and forcing the Russian State to mobilise reserves. In a mark of desperation, the Russian State has passed a rushed annexation legislation to incorporate the separatist regions and bring them under the protection of the Russian Nuclear Shield.¹² Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a state visit to the United States, addressing its Congress, asking for further imperialist aid to continue the war effort.

In many oppressed nations, the people have risen in revolt. In Brazil, a strong movement albeit under reformist leadership has dislodged the reactionary Bolsonaro Government. Simultaneously, students and workers have struck against neoliberal policies. In Iran, the murder of a woman by the fundamentalist police has sparked revolt that was long brewing over a host of democratic and economic issues. American imperialist elements are also attempting to co-opt these protests towards re-establishing a comprador bourgeoisie regime in Iran which is favourable towards American capital, with Elon Musk’s SpaceX offering internet services¹³ to the protestors while the US Department of the Treasury has actively sanctioned Iran’s bureaucrats to show imperial support towards the protests.¹⁴ The working class of the crucial petroleum industry has also joined these protests. In Iraq, the people led by a cleric had stormed the Green Zone, that is, the US Military installation in the centre of Baghdad.¹⁵

The world-wide stranglehold of US imperialism is weakening as witnessed by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)’s refusal to agree to US diktats regarding oil production cuts,¹⁶ the EU’s attempts to form a separate military bloc, the US retracting comments on Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and Chinese-sponsored North Korean aggression towards US-allied Japan. Feeble attempts at shows of strength including a $1.1bn arms package to Taiwan¹⁷ and deployment of Air Craft Carrier off the North Korean shore do not contradict this trend. Meanwhile, with intensifying gunfights, the US is threatening to intervene in Haiti.¹⁸ The lacklustre support for the call for reparations to Ukraine by Russia further reflects this trend.¹⁹

In Peru, Pedro Castillo, a candidate elected on a social democratic and reformist platform was impeached from his office as president after an year of removing progressive ministers from his ministry and replacing them with openly reactionary elements.²⁰ The failure of Castillo’s politics is part of the larger failure of the pink tide reformist politics in South America, with former Argentine president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner being sentenced to six years in prison around the same time. Meanwhile, Chile’s President Gabriel Boric, part of the same trend, survives in office by openly betraying the Chilean masses and compromising with Pinochetismo to offer a Chilean constitution that was rejected via plebiscite.²¹ The Chilean masses continue to rouse against such social fascists and engaged in mass demonstration for renewed democratic process through a new Constituent assembly.

The Backyard

In the sub-continent, political instability and economic crisis grips Pakistan as clashes continue between the US-sponsored Sharif regime and the Chinese-leaning Imran Khan-led forces aided by increasing infiltration of Chinese-backed reactionary forces from the Afghanistan. The country’s economic condition which was already in dire straits has deteriorated further due to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) backed neoliberal policies and the havoc created by the floods. In Sri Lanka, as protest subsided, the IMF’s grip has tightened with a host of financial restructuring programmes announced. In Nepal the US is increasing its hold through World Bank loans.²² In Myanmar, following the incarceration of the US puppet Aung San Sui Kyui, clashes between Chinese sponsored Junta and peoples’ forces have sharpened with a major bomb attack and intense fighting in the Kayin state witnessed recently.²³ Bangladesh has witnessed skyrocketing inflation, power shortages and a slump in the export sector. This is prompting the Bangladesh ruling classes to find a scapegoat in the Rohingya refugees and divert people’s anger towards them. The recent elections in Bangladesh have seen open fascist repression towards all political opposition as the police forces fired on demonstrators from opposition parties. Meanwhile in Afghanistan, the new Taliban regime, established after US puppet regime collapsed in a few weeks after the US army receded from the country, continues to antagonize its people by banning women from accessing higher education. Resistance in this space continues, with droves of Afghan men publicly leaving their universities in protest of the policy as well as emerging protests around Kabul University.

Closer Home

In India, the economic crisis increases with the State having given up on curtailing inflation and accepted a new norm in prices. The highly understated unemployment statistics rolled out by the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has indicated a 12 month high in monthly unemployment in September. As more and more rating agencies and international institutions downgrade growth estimates and the rupee depreciates under the onslaught of US rate hikes causing a decimation of foreign currency reserves, the inwards flow of foreign portfolio investment has decreased by nearly 70 per cent in this quarter. As the world economy moves towards contraction, the exports sector has also deflated without similar reduction in imports causing a ballooning deficit in the current account. India’s external debt has also vastly increased. The Start-up sector is reeling from a funds shortage leading to wide lay-offs. The IT Sector, dependent on demand from imperialist centres is freezing recruitment and wages leading employees to work side jobs. Several IT majors have sacked employees found moon-lighting but the writing on the wall is clear, the crisis has gone above the working class and peasantry to reach the doors of the urban petit-bourgeoisie.

Climate change has resulted in droughts during the monsoon period and unexpected rainfall in dry periods. This has disrupted agrarian schedules and caused spikes in vegetable harvests while disrupting the crucial wheat rabi harvest which has plummeted stocks in the Food Corporation of India (FCI) to dangerously low levels. As core sector and manufacturing growth declines due to the crisis of demand, and private investment dries up despite the repeated appeals of the finance minister, capital is seeking to engage in primitive accumulation in an effort to maintain profit rates. An example would be the approval for mining in reserved forests in Chambal region of Madhya Pradesh²⁴ and the new forest rights bill.²⁵ These attempts at primitive accumulation and land acquisition are being opposed in various parts of the country, notably in Kerala, where Adani’s Vizhinjam port has met sustained opposition from the fishing communities, despite the support of the social fascist Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) Government.²⁶ The protests against the building of an airport and land acquisition for it in Azamgarh, Uttar Pradesh are also intensifying.

In an effort to distract attention from the economic crisis, the State continues to trumpet its Hindutvadi horn. Efforts to impose Hindi have seen protests in Tamil Nadu²⁷ while the Godhra case has been closed by the Supreme Court in an effort to please reactionary elements.²⁸ A nationwide ban on the Popular Front of India (PFI) has been orchestrated while madrassas are being targeted in many states. Assam is razing down these religious schools while UP has conducted a survey of madrassas and is now planning one of Wafq land. There have even been attempts to rename the Taj Mahal and the Gyanvapi case is proceeding, though slowly, and joined by the Shahi Idgah and a similar case in Karnataka. In Karnataka, an anti-conversion bill has been passed while the heinous rapists of Bilkis Bano have been released which has resulted in protests across the country including in the local area.

Simultaneously, the State has continued to clamp down on the various nationality movements. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) has been extended in Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh²⁹ while peace talks proceed with compromising elements of the Naga separatists. As the peace talks proceed, the Indian state continues to use the military to occupe dozens of villages and vacate its residents to camps in one go. Sympathisers of the LTTE have been raided in Tamil Nadu.³⁰ Application of diplomatic pressure on Canada has been attempted to curb the actions of the Khalistani diaspora³¹ while in Kashmir, journalists have been particularly targeted. Militancy has increased in Kashmir with assassinations of those assumed to be loyal to the State becoming a regular feature. Movement of reformist political leaders is being restricted while attempts to change the voter rolls has been temporarily discarded. The State reacts with particular belligerence when the issue of Kashmir is raised in international platforms as seen in the cases of Turkey³² or Pakistan.

In an effort to ensure that the people live in a permanent state of fear, the State has increased its assault on democratic rights. Activists like Teesta Setalvad have been jailed in old and baseless cases and bail given only after a lengthy period of incarceration. The IT department and Enforcement Directorate (ED) are being used to tame international NGOs like Oxfam and Centre for Policy Research (CPR). Opposition politicians like Jignesh Mevani are being incarcerated and journalist-activists like Siddique Kappan are being trapped in one case after another to continue their incarceration. Democratic rights activists like Umar Khalid have spent 3 years in jail with words like revolution being deemed seditious.

But among all this, the hammer has been falling hardest on the revolutionary forces and its close allies. As the Operation SAMADHAN-Prahar onslaught and revolutionary resistance to it intensifies, the State has dispatched the National Security Guard (NSG) to Chhattisgarh to bolster its military forces. Alongside this, homes of activists of a revolutionary womens’ organisation in Telangana have being raided. Attempts are being made to murder jailed revolutionaries through deliberate exposure to disease and subsequent denial of treatment as in the case of Vernon Gonsalves who contracted dengue and was denied proper treatment. Bail is being denied without cause to Jyoti Jagtap and Hany Babu despite the latter suffering several health complications. Furthermore, those arrested in the Bhima Koregaon-Elgaar Parishad case are being entrapped in another case (the Gadchiroli bomb blast case) simply to extend their incarceration. Due to serious illness, Gautam Navlakha has been extended medical bail with extremely restrictive bail conditions. Professor Anand Teltumbde has been given bail by the Bombay High Court. In the case of the revolutionary Prof. GN Saibaba, while the Bombay High Court overturned his sentence and those of the other 5 comrades on a technical issue, the Supreme Court acted with surprising and uncharacteristic haste to suspend the order thereby continuing keep the revolutionaries in jail. They remain in jail even as the Supreme Court has started the process of hearing their appeals.

The Indian state continues its fascist assault on dismantling the framework of reservations for Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Castes with the institutionalization of 10% reservations for Economically Weaker Sections. The reservation policy already lacked representation of Dalit and Adivasi sections in the field of education and employment, with most seats remaining vacant due to limited persons even having the social and economic position to contest for such positions but with the introduction of the EWS reservations, the policy loses its anti-caste and social reform character entirely. It brahmanizes reservation, allowing space for upper caste persons to contest for the reserved seats.

In And Around Delhi

Delhi has witnessed an unusually energetic election season during the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) elections. The issue regarding the replacing of the New Pension Scheme with the older version has taken centre stage among those who are government workers. The government in this area also issued a character certificate to journalists covering an audience with the PM but this was retracted following an uproar. In Himachal Pradesh, the reactionary forces are increasing their influence with propagation of the need for a uniform civil code and a survey of madrassas in the lead up to the elections in the state. A strike of Anganwadi workers also occurred for pay increase and regularisation while the people were incensed when a ruling class politician raped and murdered a woman in Uttarakhand. Protests and bandhs followed which were mainly targeted at the institution of the revenue police, a colonial hangover whose delay in investigating the case greatly angered the people. This institution has been now disbanded and a regular police force will be established. In Kashmir, traders have protested the establishment of a Reliance store as well as the saffronisation of children of the minority community through the singing of Hindu hymns in school.

The capital city of the country has witnessed an increase in activity over the period. The brutal murder of a live-in partner has been utilised to fan the flames of religious bigotry. Residents Welfare Association (RWA) members have protested against hikes in property taxes while MTech Students in Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi have protested over fee hikes. In Delhi University (DU), residents of the women hostel waged a struggle against an expulsion order.

In Western Uttar Pradesh, peasants have been struggling to increase compensation for land taken in the construction of the Jewar Airport while middle class people have taken out a march over the menace of street dogs.

In the Gurgaon-Manesar industrial belt, the foothold of reactionary forces has increased. Reactionaries entered a local mosque and beat up worshippers. In a university, clashes occurred between Hindu students and Muslim Nigerian students over the latter performing Namaz in the football field and this resulted in a formal complaint by the Nigerian envoy. The Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) held a march of about 200 to 300 persons while the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) held a meeting where it was declared that all Maulvis must be removed.

Labour and peasant agitations have also increased in the southern industrial area. Employees of the municipal corporation have held a strike while a state-wide sanitation workers strike has also occurred. The families of those jailed in the Maruti case held a two day hunger strike while in a Japanese company a legalistic movement of contract workers under the influence of neo-revisionist has been underway. The peasants of this area are also struggling with the government to increase compensation for land acquisition to facilitate the expansion of the industrial area.

Demolitions of homes have been reported in Sundar Nagari, Gazipur, Baburpur and in the slum clusters in South Delhi in Shaheen Bagh and in the village of Khadak in Chhatarpur. The homes belong largely to the Muslim communities in the area and are a targeted attack on the community by the Delhi Development Authority (DDA).

Conclusion

The imperialist crisis and its relation with emerging fascism all over the world is on clear display with the developments occurring in the last three months. As the crisis continues to expand and envelop advanced capitalist countries too, the labouring masses of the world face intensified repression from fascism as the imperialist system attempts to navigate this crisis. In the oppressed nations, these crisis are rapidly approaching the threshold of affecting the petit-bourgeois and national bourgeois classes too, along with the proletariat and peasantry. It is also clear that in all areas of fascist repression, resistance is taking birth. As history has shown, the storm will not whether itself and the immediate tasks in front of people require organized anti-imperialist anti-feudal efforts, with the aim to not reform, but to organize towards New Democratic revolution to find a way out of the continued oppression and exploitation of imperialism.

by the Nazariya Team

References:

1. ‘US inflation soars to 8.2 per cent, highest in 40 years’, Economic Times, October 13 2022.
2. ‘Japan’s inflation hits 8-year high in test of BOJ’s dovish policy’, Reuters, October 21 2022.
3. ‘China’s 20th Party Congress: Beijing delays release of key economic data amid major meeting’, Hong Kong Free Press, October 17 2022.
4. ‘Amazon warehouse workers stage Black Friday strikes and protests around world’, The Guardian, November 25 2022.
5. ‘UK’s biggest transport union votes to extend rail strike’, Financial Times, November 16 2022.
6. ‘French refineries restart after strike action’, Reuters, November 2 2022.
7. ‘Transport strikes across Italy’, Libcom.org, December 4 2022.
8. ‘Amazon workers protest at some German, French sites on Black Friday, Reuters, November 27 2022.
9. ‘Eurowings pilots to go on strike on Thursday’, DW, October 4 2022.
10. ‘Devastating Consequences’ as new Swedish government scarps Environment Ministry’, Euronews, October 19 2022.
11. ‘No conclusive evidence Russia is behind Nord Stream attack’, Washington Post, December 21 2022.
12. ‘US says Russia using ‘Nuclear Shield’ in Ukraine, Flags huge risk’, NDTV, August 2 2022.
13. ‘White House in talks with Musk to set up Starlink in Iran’, Reuters, October 21 2022.
14. ‘Treasury Sanctions Iranian Regime Officials Tied to Continued Violence Against Protestors’, Press Release of the US Department of Treasury, December 21 2022.
15. ‘Rockets hit Baghdad’s Green Zone as Iraq Parliament meets’, Al Jazeera, October 13 2022.
16. ‘OPEC+ keeps oil targets amid weakening economy, Russian sanctions’, Al Jazeera, December 4 2022.
17. ‘US approves $1.1bn Taiwan arms sale, angering China’, BBC, September 3 2022.
18. ‘As Haiti Unravels, U.S. Officials Push to send in an Armed Foreign Force, The New York Times, November 29 2022.
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27. ‘Allegation of Hindi imposition: TN railway station removes Hindi signage’, Deccan Herald, November 30 2022.
28. ‘Many Muslim residents of Bilkis Bano’s village leave over fears of safety after convicts release’, Outlook, August 23 2022.
29. ‘AFSPA extended in Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh’, The Hindu, October 1 2022.
30. ‘Charges filed against 3 LTTE supporters’, Tribune India, November 12 2022.
31. ‘India issues demarche to Canada against upcoming Khalistan Referendum II’, Mint, October 9 2022.
32. ‘Turkish Prez Erdogan raises Kashmir at UN meet again. There is a difference’, Hindustan Times, September 21 2022.